Economists: Greece Will Stay In The Eurozone
- by XpatAthens
- Thursday, 19 February 2015
That’s the view of economists in a Bloomberg survey as the anti-austerity SYRIZA party appears set to take power after elections on Jan. 25. They say there’s an 80% chance that Greece sticks with the euro even if Alexis Tsipras forms a majority government. More than half of respondents see Greece getting debt relief, whoever wins.
There’s a 15% chance Greece will leave the 19-nation currency union if Tsipras forms a coalition government with one of the centrist parties, the Bloomberg survey shows. That compares with 5% under an alliance led by New Democracy.
The risk increases to 20% if SYRIZA gets an overall majority, compared with 5% under a New Democracy majority, the poll shows.
A victory for Tsipras, either alone or in coalition, would result in debt relief for Greece, according to 87% of those polled, while 57% said the same of a Samaras victory.
“Compromise is not as hard as it looks,” said Alan McQuaid, chief economist at Merrion Capital in Dublin. “SYRIZA does not have a democratic mandate to take Greece out of the single currency. It may have to form a coalition to govern, requiring compromise even on its flagship policy. And Europe can give.”
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